International Alert

The lack of a better understanding about the causes of conflict has hampered development and peacebuilding efforts that can deal effectively with the enduring violence that afflicts parts of the Philippines, especially in Mindanao. Unpacking conflict is often hampered by the lack of robust evidence on violence and security. The deficit in reliable and timely conflict data and analysis helps explain the many failed attempts to transform conflict-torn communities into sites of sustainable and peaceful development – despite the efforts of local people to improve their lives, the significant investments made by local and national states, and the substantial aid extended by outside organisations.

In Mindanao, the urgent need for data that exposes the incidence, intensity and magnitude of violent conflict at the subnational level is critical in dealing with the potential recurrence of conflict after the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) in March 2014. It is crucial in informing policies and programmes that can prevent or reduce newly emerging patterns of violence during and after the transition. It is also central to casting aside misconceptions about the real causes of conflict, and the effectiveness, or lack of it, of current measures designed to reduce conflict.

The Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) aims to address these needs. It fills the gap in dynamic, real-time datasets that track conflict incidence, typology, causes, actors and effects in a publicly accessible manner that can be easily analysed.

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Nikki Philline de la Rosa

Global experience suggests that declines in rebellion-related conflict can lead to an intensification of transition-induced horizontal violence between clans, tribes, political elites, and criminal entrepreneurs. However, there are few sources of robust data that can test this relationship at the subnational level. This paper offers fresh evidence of the phenomena of transition- induced violence through the analysis of conflict strings in the case of subnational conflict in the southern provinces of Muslim Mindanao.

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Ever J. Abasolo

The Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro and the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) have caught the attention of business groups in search of new opportunities in agribusiness, manufacturing, energy provision, mineral exploration and financial services.

However, fear still grips business due to many uncertainties in the transition process. Few see the development possibilities and the economic momentum that can be unleashed as the region and its transitional leadership secure the political legitimacy and authority that can be provided by the BBL.

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